Thursday, May 12, 2011

Welcome to Miami

Over the summer, the unification of Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and Lebron James to the Miami Heat drew a great deal of negative backlash. The big two and a half were all brimming with confidence, and Lebron went as far as to say this Heat team would win more than 7 NBA championships. There was scrutiny from the fans and media, but after ousting the Boston Celtics in 5 games, the Heat are beginning to back up their talk.


Every move the Miami Heat made in this season received lead story media coverage, and rightfully so. Lebron James had left his hometown team in order to try and win a championship. And Dwayne Wade openly courted Bosh and James on ESPN, even though  the NBA rules say you are not supposed to openly tell free agents to join your team.
But between 'The Decision' and that first presentation of the big two and a half to the Miami fans had a certain feeling towards it. And that general feeling was that these three guys were extremely cocky after never playing a single minute together. These three guys simply thought, and likely still think that they were better than everyone else. But after all of the talk and most of the NBA season, the Miami Heat are one of 6 teams left standing in the quest for the Larry O'Brien trophy.

So with their biggest nemesis defeated, who among the remaining teams can stop the Miami heat from winning a championship?

Is the team that can stop them Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls?

Doubtful.

Although Chicago has the youngest Most Valuable Player in NBA history, and the coach of the year in Tom Thibodeau. But despite being able to take the Heat in the regular season, the Bulls will have to get out of Miami's kitchen if they get past Atlanta.
The Bulls have almost everything needed to beat Miami. A good blend of young and veteran talent. The ability to play good defense. And really good team chemistry. But the   reason the Bulls will not oust Miami is because Derrick Rose can not score all of his team's points by himself. The blame for Chicago's lack of offense falls on their disappointing number 2 scorer, the ghost of Carlos Boozer. Boozer is averaging 10.7 points per game while shooting 39 percent from the field. And at the age of 30, Boozer shows signs of slowing down. Granted he did suffer several injuries throughout his career, most recently the famous stubbed toe that caused him to miss game 1 of the Eastern Conference playoffs against the Indiana Pacers. Chicago simply can not count on Boozer to carry the rest of the scoring load when he has been playing this badly. If the Bulls had a big time second scorer, say a Ray Allen or a Danny Granger, to accompany all of the existing elements that make them good, they could beat the heat. But unless Carlos Boozer has the series of his life, expect Miami to beat Chicago.

How about the Atlanta Hawks? No, they will not even see Miami because they will not beat Chicago in the conference semifinals.


So assuming the Heat make it out of the East, which is sounding more likely every day, who out West can cool down the big two and a half.

How bout the team from an equally hot state in Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks?


Can they? Yes, will they remains to be seen.

The Mavericks stomped on the Lakers in the Western conference semi finals, winning their last game 122-86. Dallas has consistent scoring from Dirk, averaging 26.5 points per game in the playoffs; and 6th man Jason Terry averaging 18.3 points per game in the playoffs. Another thing the lone star state team has going for them is that they can play either a half court offense, or transition offense well. The Mavericks also have pretty good chemistry and the best bench out of all the teams remaining.
The biggest concern with Dallas is their average defense. Against the Lakers, Dallas had moments in which they could not guard anybody, but they were able to get stops when they had to. That kind of D will not cut it against the Heat because Miami can score.
It would certainly be a fun series to watch, and these two teams look like the best remaining. If I had to pick a winner today, I'd go with Miami in 7 because Dwayne Wade has beaten Dirk in the NBA finals before, without Bosh and Bron-Bron.

How about the Oklahoma City Thunder? Can they beat the Heat?


Although it would be a lot of fun to watch Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook go up against the big two and a half, the Thunder aren't ready to challenge the Heat.

Yet.

Oklahoma City can score with anybody and have a solid bench. The Thunder also can play your style of play better than you because they are flexible. The flexibility comes from their great coach Scot Brooks.
But OKC still has three glaring weaknesses to this very sound team.
One is that they don't like to play defense. The Thunder were 18th in the League in total defense this past season. This is not because the Thunder don't have the athletes to play defense against anybody, it's their mindset. Oklahoma City wants shootout victories, but that will not work against the very good defense of the Miami Heat.
The other weakness is their youth. Oklahoma City has some veteran players, but the core players for Oklahoma City are still extremely young with some growing up to do. Durant is 22 and as great as he is, he needs to work on his defense for the next few summers. Westbrook is 22 and has moments when he thinks he is the star of the team; instead of differing to the better player in Durant. In addition to Westbrook's mentality, he also has to finish around the rim better, for even if you can blow by people as quickly as Westbrook, you still need to score. Their third guy, Serge Ibaka is still mostly raw talent at 21. Ibaka can block shots very well and finish around the rim. The Serge Protector has been working on a 15 foot jump shot, but it's far from completed.
The final thing that the Thunder need to address is their lack of a consistent third scorer. Durant and Westbrook are going to get their points, but the third scorer is a day to day position on this team. Some days it's Ibaka, other days its 6th man James Harden, sometimes it's 3 point marksman Dequan Cook. The championship teams all have two great scorers and a third good one. The Thunder have the two great scorers, but there is no third good scorer. The Heat have Chris Bosh who is a good third scorer.
If this core stays together, expect the Thunder to challenge the Heat consistently for championships, just not this year.

How about Zach Randolph and the Memphis Grizzlies?


No.

Although the freight trains that are Randolph and Marc Gasol would overpower the Heat's front line, and Memphis does have two great defenders in Shane Battier and Tony Allen. But the fact remains that the Grizz are having a hard enough time guarding Durant and Westbrook; so Wade James and Bosh are too much to handle. Not to mention that Memphis lacks a wing player that can score to take pressure off their front line. If Rudy Gay was healthy and starting, this could be another story. But Memphis is also young, they could one day challenge the Heat.

It would not be the upset of the year to pick the Miami Heat to win the whole thing. They are winning all of the games they need to win, and  although the Mavericks and Thunder could pull off the upset, the Heat should be the favorites right now. The only thing left to do is see if the NBA is ready for the Heat wave.

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