Not all of these questions will be covered in the Eastern Conference breakdown, but there are some interesting story lines in the entering the season.
- The Dwight Howard Fiasco
- The Celtics vs the shortened season
- Derrick Rose maxes out
- The Heat vs the World Year II
- Kris Humphires and the Boo Birds
We begin with Dwight Howard's on again off again flirt fest with being traded. Howard wants out of Orlando as soon as possible and the Lakers need a future face of the franchise with Kobe Bryant being held together by duct tape, crazy glue, and his own willpower. The Lakers tried and failed to get Chris Paul this off season, which puts far more pressure on them to land Howard now. Oddly enough, the Lakers remain reluctant to relinquish the key of the whole deal: Andrew Bynum. Which is interesting to say the least. Over the course of his career Bynum has averaged 10.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per game against Howard's 18.2 and 13 rebounds per game. Bynum has played all 82 games only once in his career and has only surpassed 65 games played in a season twice in his six year career: Howard has played all 82 games five out of his seven seasons. On top of it all, Bynum has been suspended for the first five games of the season for his cheap shot against J.J. Barea; a guy who is about the size of one of Bynum's legs. And the Lakers are reluctant to involve Bynum in a trade for Howard for what reason again? The speculation will hang over both teams like a poltergeist until Howard moves or becomes a free agent. And at the end of the day, both of these roads will still end up taking D12 to Hollywood.
From a team on the verge of losing it's best player to a team in the Boston Celtics who has three future hall of famers: all 34 or older. Add a sixty six game schedule that has been compacted to fit in as many games as possible, and you have one team that will not be able to keep up with the rest of the league. The Celtics have also already voiced their complaints to the league on how the shortened season is unfair. Ignoring the NBA's lockout debacle in the first place, the Boston Celtics are not the only team with an older roster that will suffer from a shortened season. The San Antonio Spurs, the paradigm of consistency in the NBA over the last decade, will have the same difficulties as the Celtics because they both have aging rosters. The defending NBA champion Dallas Mavericks starting lineup does not have a single player under 32. The bottom line is this, does the lockout shortened season hurt three older teams?
Yes.
That being said, neither the media nor the fans will have sympathy for these three teams if they struggle; so the Celtics are barking up the wrong tree if they are looking for sympathy.
From the old and troubled to the young and blossoming, the Chicago Bulls have inked the new face of an iconic basketball franchise for 95 million dollars. There are 95 million reasons as to why the Bulls should have locked up Derrick Rose, but the most important one may be this: the Chicago Bulls fans have not been this excited about a player since Michael Jordan played his last game as a Bull in 1998. Those kind of expectations simply cranks the colossal spotlight Rose is in up a thousand degrees or so.
And Rose is just 23. Rose is also ready for that kind of pressure.
Rose took his team to the best record in the Eastern Conference, won the MVP, and took his team to the conference finals last season. And he is just beginning to enter his prime. Derrick Rose is a great player more than capable of leading a team to the promise land, he just needs some help to do so.
From Derrick Rose to the team that beat his Bulls in the conference finals a year ago, the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat lost in the NBA Finals in six games. Much has been made over the way that the Miami Heat came together as a team, like how they declared themselves to be the new dynasty of the league before ever touching the court. The Heat so far have not won two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, not even one ring as of today. Last season's defeat in the finals and scrutiny from the media could humble the Heat just enough so that the south beach trio takes home their first ring together. Still, there are 29 other teams looking to accomplish the same goal as the Heat, so let us hold off on the parade routes through Miami: pre planning parades did not work so well for them last year.
From a hated team to a hated man Kris Humphires of the New Jersey Nets. Last night Humphires got the daylights booed out of him at Madison Square Garden during a preseason game. Humphries is not famous for finishing fifth in the league in rebounding a year ago, but rather his off season marriage with Kim Kardashian. A recent poll has Humphires as the most hated player in the NBA ahead of Lebron James, Kobe Bryant and Metta World Peace (the Artist formerly known as Ron Artest.) The Kardashian franchise is a powerful one in this country, and short of a disliked player being found guilty of committing sexual assault, Humphries' title as the most hated man in the NBA will remain in tact for a full season.
With the story lines covered, here is how the conference should shake out.
1: Miami Heat
2: Chicago Bulls
3: New York Knicks
4: Orlando Magic
5: Boston Celtics
6: Philadelphia 76ers
7: Atlanta Hawks
8: Indiana Pacers
9: Charlotte Bobcats
10: Milwaukee Bucks
11: Detroit Pistons
12: Toronto Raptors
13: Washington Wizards
14: Cleveland Cavaliers
15: New Jersey Nets
We start, of course, with the preseason number one in the East, the Miami Heat.
After a very eventful off season in 2010, the Miami Heat took the league by storm by winning 58 games and bulldozed through Eastern Conference opponents in the playoffs. And although confetti did rain down on the home floor of the south beach trio last season, that confetti was for the Dallas Mavericks winning the NBA title.
Unfortunately for the Heat haters, Wade, James, Bosh and company will not be going away any time soon. The Heat picked up veteran defender Shane Battier who is not only capable of playing lock down defense, but Battier can also provide the corner threes that Mike Miller could not in the Finals. And coach Eric Spoelstra is phoning friend Chip Kelly, the Oregon Ducks football coach, with ideas for a new offense. Not sure how it is going to look, but Spoelstra should get props for his willingness to try something new; and if his new look offense includes play cards with pictures on them, then it will at least be fun to look at.
Still, the Heat do not have anybody in the front court other than Bosh that teams should even bother guarding on defense. Eddy Curry is as durable as a house of cards, Udonis Haslem has a very bad habit of disappearing during games, Juwan Howard is running on fumes, and a young Alonzo Mourning is not walking through that door. The best way to beat the Heat is to take them to the low block and eat up clock to stop their transition offense; Dirk Nowitzki killed the Heat in the Finals and there are a few teams that can expose the Heat down low in 2011.
The Heat Index will be very high coming into this season, but that does not guarantee a ring in South Beach.
The second best team in the east is the Chicago Bulls
Just in case anybody did not already know, Derrick Rose is a great player. Rose won the MVP and guided the Bulls to the best record in the East a year ago before being bested by the south beach trio in the conference finals. But that was last season, and a lockout shortened 2011-2012 season will favor the Bulls slightly more than the Heat because they are slightly younger: the Bulls average player age is 27 compared to the Heat's average age of 28.
If the Chicago Bulls want to challenge the Miami Heat for Eastern Conference supremacy, then the other guys on the roster have to elevate to stand alongside Rose. Carlos Boozer had a good season with the Bulls, averaging 17.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per game a year ago. Luol Deng also stepped up last season, averaging 17.4 points per game. Joakin Noah was one of the best rebounders in the game and averaged a double double a year ago. And the Bulls did add veteran shooter Rip Hamilton, who should be eager to contribute to a winner after an abysmal year with the Pistons that included everything from coming off the bench to feuds with the coaching staff.
The Bulls biggest concern is their health. Boozer, Deng, and Noah had injury problems a year ago, and the rest of the roster consists of guards and small forwards. If Boozer or Noah go down for an extended amount of time this season, the Bulls will fall a couple of branches on the playoff tree. If all three of these guys remain healthy and Hamilton and Rose continue to jell, the Heat will have a fight on their hands in the conference championship game.
Third on the list of the Eastern Conference's best teams is the New York Knicks
A deadline deal last season gave the New York Knicks Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups and added a lot of hype. This season, Mello is the face of basketball in big apple, Billups is gone, and the excitement surrounding the team has grown exponentially over the summer.
The Knicks could take a step forward in 2011 if they play their cards right. Anthony and Amare Stoudemire will have no problem putting up points, and the Knicks do have bench scoring in Barron Davis and Mike Bibby. Tyson Chandler and Landry Fields will sure up the defense for the Knicks, and if they add the same ten points per game they both averaged a year ago, the Knicks will be even more dangerous. But the key to the Knicks improvement is Toney Douglas. Douglas averaged 10.6 points and three assists per game as backup point guard a year ago, and this year Douglas is the man with Billups gone. If Douglas can go from being a eleven and three guy to a fifteen and eight guy, the Knicks can make some noise in the eastern conference.
Coming in at number four, the Orlando Magic.
The Magic dangled Dwight Howard as trade bait for quite some time before pulling the line back in. Unless a mystery team comes out with an offer that is too good to refuse, the Magic will have Howard for one more year before losing him to free agency. This makes this season the last chance for this Magic group to make a title run. But the Magic did not do anything that would suggest that they could challenge the Heat or Bulls. Howard is a physical freak, but his range is limited to dunking and closer. Quentin and Jason Richardson can only knock down threes. Jameer Nelson is a good, but not elite point guard. Hedo Turkoglu still will hog the ball in critical possessions. And the Glenn Davis for Brandon Bass trade will hurt the Magic down low because Davis does not rebound as well. 2011 will be the same old song and dance for the Magic, which will end in disappointment and Dwight Howard packing his bags at the end of it.
Let's go back up north to our number five team, the Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics are one of three teams in the NBA who could not afford to have a shortened season because Paul Pierce Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen are all in their mid thirties. It will be only a matter of time before one of two things happen to the Celtics in this sixty six game season.
1: The Celtics big three will play less in order to keep them fresh for the playoffs, which will cost them playoff positioning and home court against the Heat, Bulls, Knicks, and Magic.
Or
2: The Celtics will go for it all and two of the big three will get hurt at some point during the season. This would cause the Celtics to limp into the playoffs and get swept in the first round.
The more likely scenario is the first one, so the highest the Celtics would finish is fifth in the Eastern conference. Rajon Rondo is a good slashing point guard who can pass well, but his jump shot is still nothing to be afraid of. And sure the Celtics got the Purdue duo E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, but their growth will be hindered due to the lack of training camp and off season preparation.
A fitting number 6 in the conference is one of the more interesting teams in the East, the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Sixers surprised a lot of people by making the playoffs as the seventh seed a year ago, and this young team could be on the rise with other members of the conference taking a step backwards. The Sixers did fall to the Miami Heat in five games last year, but they only lost by more than ten points once in the entire series. Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand lead the way in scoring with 14 points per game each. Not spectacular scoring numbers, but this 76er team relies more on defense to win than scoring. The Sixers did far better than many predicted at the beginning of the year, raking ninth in the NBA in defense a year ago.
If the 76ers want to move up to the next level, they need better play from their guards. Jure Holiday stepped up last year, and now the number 2 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Evan Turner, needs to unearth himself from the bench and become the starting shooting guard in the city of brotherly love. The Sixers play good defense and are young, which are two good building blocks for any team. Expect improvement from Philadelphia this season.
Coming in at number 7 is the Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks got their wings clipped a bit in the playoffs due to their run in with the Heat wave, and appear to be in the downswing in 2011. The Hawks return their core of Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and Al Horford for yet another season, but they lose a key piece in Jamal Crawford to the black hole of free agency. The Hawks did try to recover by adding Tracy McGrady and Vald Radmonovich, but neither of those players will be able to provide the consistent scoring that Crawford gave the Hawks. Joe Johnson should will the Hawks to the playoffs as a seven seed, but they will be quickly ousted by the Heat or Bulls in five.
Rounding out the top eight in the conference is the Indiana Pacers.
Here is another young team that knows how to play defense and gave a top level team in the Chicago Bulls all they could handle in the first round of the playoffs. The Pacers lost in five, but there were a lot of good things to take away from last season, such as the team's seventh ranked field goal percentage against a year ago.
The Pacers bring youth and talent to the table in 2011. Danny Granger is a good player on both sides of the ball. Darren Collison is a quick point guard that is willing to pass and can score when he has to. Roy Hibbert is a solid rebounder and could provide a double double season for the Pacers. And most importantly, the Pacers landed David West in the off season to give Indiana some additional scoring punch it has been missing.
Like other teams, the Pacers lack back court depth, but if everyone stays healthy and David West can fit into the defense, the Pacers could be sneaky good this season.
Next up we have the outsiders looking in on the top half of the east.
9: Charlotte Bobcats: Kemba Walker dominated March Madness and will push D.J. Augustin for the point guard of the future title in Charlotte. That being said, the Bobcats are painfully thin up front in addition to not being good in the low post. Charlotte could push Indiana for the eighth spot if they slip up, but that is wishful thinking.
10: Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks should be better with Brandon Jennings back in the lineup full time after missing time with a broken toe, but Jennings needs to figure out what kind of player he is so the Bucks can plan on what kind of talent to surround him with. As for the Rest of the Bucks, Bogut Gooden, Jackson, and Delfino could all contribute on a winning team, but they are all better role players than starters. The Bucks will not get past Indiana for the eighth spot in the playoff chase.
11: Detroit Pistons: With Rip Hamilton gone, the team's chemistry should be better this season. But with the Pistons' salary tied into the ovepaid duo of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, it will be tough to surround Greg Monroe and Rodney Stuckey with any kind of real talent.
12: Toronto Raptors: DeMar DeRozan burst onto the scene as one of the NBA's most promising young players in 2010-2011. That being said, DeRozan needs a lot more help that what he has to work with in Toronto to make Canada care about basketball this season.
13: Washington Wizards: John Wall would have won rookie of the year if Blake Griffin did not dunk on everything in his path a year ago. Still, Washington has their point guard of the future, they just need to surround him with..well talent.
14: The Cleveland Cavaliers: Kyrie Irving is the new face of the Cleveland Cavaliers. But until he proves he is ready, he will ride the pine during another bad year for the team formerly known as the fighting Lebrons.
15: New Jersey Nets: Brook Lopez is down with a broken right foot and Kris Humphires has the power to make an opposing team's fan base boo at the top of their lungs. And why would Deron Williams come back after this year?
That will do it for the Eastern Conference breakdown, but how will the Western Conference be won? Stay tuned for part two of the NBA preview extravaganza.
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