"Perposterous" Preseason Predictions

As training camp picks up the impending arrival of NFL football becomes like a pickup truck running over a small squirrel. 

So, in the spirit of squashing all other sports stories out in the rest of the sporting world, the time has come to make some “preposterous” predictions for the upcoming season.

“Preposterous” prediction number one: The Baltimore Ravens will miss the playoffs.

When it comes to the postseason Joe Flacco is no fluke. Last season’s great line throughout the playoffs (73-126, 58 percent completion percentage, 1,140 yards, 11 touchdowns, Zero interceptions) speaks for itself.

Flacco is the only quarterback to win a postseason game each of his first five seasons in the NFL. He has 19 postseason touchdowns to eleven interceptions. And Baltimore has won nine of the 13 playoff games Flacco has started; so the Ravens have won 69 percent of games Flacco has started in come playoff time.

Yet this season will undoubtedly be the most challenging for football’s newest 100 million dollar man.

This is because his team’s spiritual leader, (Ray Lewis) their impact pass rusher of last postseason (Paul Krueger), and Flacco’s top two targets (Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta) are gone.

Terrell Suggs had just two sacks all of last season. James Ihedigbo, the former Patriots safety who couldn’t defend a chair in pass coverage, is listed as their starting strong safety.

Combine all of this with the overall strength of the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals not getting worse, and that Baltimore’s offensive coordinators for some reason refuse to give Ray Rice more than 20 carries on a consistent basis for some irrational reason; and you have a recipe for Baltimore to miss the playoffs.

“Preposterous” prediction number two: AJ Green will have a better statistical year than Andre Johnson.

Let’s stack up the numbers of two NFL receivers in a vacuum for a moment.

Receiver A’s numbers: 97 receptions, 1,350 receiving yards, Eleven touchdown catches, 13.9 yards per reception, 84.4 yards per game.

Receiver B’s numbers: 63 catches, 688 yards,  two touchdown catches, 10.9 yards per reception, 52.9 yards per game.

Based off of the vacuum principle, receiver B doesn’t belong in the same stratosphere as receiver A. Yet take these numbers out of the vacuum and you realize that receiver B is actually Andre Johnson’s circa 2005; back when he was 24 (and had David Carr throwing him the ball.)

Green at 24 put up better numbers than Johnson at 24. And Green, who is already a beast, is just entering his prime this year.

But prime isn’t the only reason Green should have a better statistical year, for competition factors in as well.

Johnson will have to face the Seahawks and 49ers defenses on consecutive weeks; as well as an improved Arizona Cardinals defense with a talented corner in Patrick Peterson. Not to mention the Denver Broncos later in the year with the leader of the NFL’s ‘never count him out due to age’ team in Champ Bailey.

The toughest challenge Green will have to face is in week one against the vaunted Bears pass defense.

After that game Green will get to torch the Packers in week three, the Patriots in week five, the Bills in week six, the Lions in week seven, the Jets in week eight, San Diego in week 13 and the Colts in week 14.

Expect both of these receivers to play great this year. It’s just things are lining up for Green to have a better year in 2013 than Johnson does.

Ballpark's Biggest Problem

America’s national pastime is in serious trouble.

Long gone are the summer days of 1949 where the playoff push engulfs a nation as two steroid free hall of fame players race for the Triple Crown and a pennant. In the heyday of baseball this stretch built up legends, birthed contenders, and crushed the dreams of fans across the country.

Nowadays the most intense push in baseball’s season is overshadowed by easygoing NFL players running around in shoulder pads and shorts.

By the end of August the boys of summer will be dwarfed by boys who were off from school for the summer. And by September the masses will have largely forgotten baseball even existed.

Setting aside the exponential growth of football for a moment, baseball has its own issues that are causing it to be drained of interest. While the Biogenesis scandal looms over baseball like the Mr. Stay Puft man loomed over New York, baseball faces other problems that could destroy it in time.

We’ll get to those in a moment, for now we must start with the bane of baseball’s existence.

The Biogenesis Scandal.

Just in case you’ve spent the summer spelunking and have just come back to civilization here is a short rundown of Biogenesis.

• About 20-25 players have been linked to the owner of a Miami clinic named Anthony Bosch.
• This clinic owner provided performance enhancing drugs to these players and agreed to turn everything he had over to MLB.
• MLB agreed to pay for Bosch’s legal bills and provide personal security in exchange for information about the players in question. (For the record MLB is getting a free pass from just about everyone on collusion for the greater good of nailing these guys. No sympathy for the users here, just stating a fact.)
• The biggest names on the list are as follows: Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Braun, Bartolo Colon, Nelson Cruz, and Jhonny Peralta.
• Nobody on this list has tested positive for PED’s this year to date.
• Ryan Braun has taken a deal from MLB and has been suspended for the rest of this season.
• Decisions on at least nine others are expected by next week at the latest.

Even after all of the tough talk in regards to cleaning up the game baseball has to get into bed with a questionable Miami clinic owner to try and stamp out this new steroid group.

Baseball will try to bring down the hammer of Thor on these players to discourage future PED use. The upcoming suspensions will lessen the quality of this pennant race (by getting rid of Oakland’s best pitcher and solid offensive cogs for the Rangers and Tigers) for the sake of improving the game in the long haul.

Ultimately that’s a worthy trade off in principle, yet this purge will not have the desired affect.

Dragging the old steroid guys before congress back in 2006 and watching them lie on national television made everyone who hit more than 30 home runs in a year a potential target of roid speculation.

Chris Davis will forever have to answer questions as to how a guy whose career high in homers (33) was topped before the all-star break.

Baseball can purge whoever they want and it is ultimately a good thing that players want the game to be clean. But their lying predecessors have cast omnipresent speculation over the players of today and tomorrow.

The upcoming Biogenesis purge is a public relations farce and baseball isn’t even close to cleaning up the game. 

Out of Touch Off the Field

On paper there is nothing offensive about what Tom Brady told Sports illustrated writer Peter King. There was no condoning of Hernandez’s actions, no hat bearing the words ‘Free Hernandez’ on his head, and no mention of Hernandez at all.

In the public relations world Brady’s quote was perfect. In reality Tom Brady’s quote was unacceptable.

For this first time since Aaron Hernandez was charged with the murder of Odin Lloyd, the face of the Patriots franchise had something to say on the matter. What he said was nothing offensive, though he feigned ignorance to the issue entirely.

The exact context of Brady’s comments looked like this. SI writer Peter King asked Brady “what’s you reaction to Aaron Hernandez’ being arrested and cut from the team, and how will his absence affect your offense?”

Brady answered: “I've seen a lot of things over 13 years, and what I have learned is that mental toughness and putting aside personal agendas for what's in the best interest of the team matters most. My job is to play quarterback, and I'm going to do that the best way I know how, because I owe that to my teammates regardless of who is out there on the field with me."

Yes Tom, one of your premier targets will not be on the field with you next season, but you barely answered the second half of the question.

It is common knowledge that the former Patriots tight end has been charged with murder, yet Brady didn’t give his take on the issue of a former teammate sitting in jail. This quote embodies the mindset of Brady and Coach Bill Belichick perfectly.

If it’s not about football it doesn’t matter.

Except Odin Lloyd is dead and a former teammate, and a former productive teammate, is the one going to trail for allegedly ending his life; that matters.

More importantly that deserves more than a passive dismissal from the face of the New England Patriots current icon.

Nobody is arguing with the Patriots track record of success. The Belichick Brady tandem has won 136 football games over more than a decade. Brady has the fifth most touchdown passes in NFL history.

We get that you guys are successful, but that doesn’t give either of them a free pass to just ignore problems that exist outside of their jobs.

Brady and Belichick have brought three Superbowl trophies to New England by making football the first, second, and third most important things in their lives.

While this mindset is great for winning games it is putrid when it comes to dealing with the outside world. And the Aaron Hernandez situation is the outside worlds crashing down on the ideal non-existent off the field issues for the Patriots strive for every year.

Even while the Patriots mindset is football first, there has to be a higher demand from the reporters asking him questions. Whether these journalists have to burn some bridges to get the honest answer everyone wants, in this instance it needs to be done.

Otherwise the Patriots will continue to focus on football and shut out the outside world. Much to the chagrin of Odin Lloyd and his family.

The Anti-Athlete Role Model Argument

Some early morning channel surfing lead this writer to the channel in which Skip and Stephen A. were discussing Colin Kaepernick’s recent clothing “controversy.”

The former Daily News sports writer took the stance that because Kaepernick is in an elevated position in society, he has to be far more image cautious than the average citizen because of how impressionable members of the younger generation are.

While the point was well defended, the idea of professional athletes being role models for kids is ludicrous.

To plagiarize the late Mahatma Gandhi, we have to be the change we want to see in the world; and placing all athletes on the increasingly fragile pedestal of high moral values is foolish when many of them are not willing or able to embrace that responsibility.

It is easy to blame media sensationalism for why kids act like the questionable people they see on television. Yet an enormous part of sports on every level is sensationalism. The athletic marvels like Blake Griffin jump over cars and Robert Griffin the Third sprinting at an Olympic hurdler pace are huge reasons for why people watch sports.

Combine that with broken households (by societal standards), the current economic mindset, and the increasing prominence of media as a pacifier and kids are hard pressed not to act like who they see on television.

Yet in the midst of these realities one key fact slips through the cracks: kids who are at the age of being impressionable are looking up at the sensational people that we as a society are putting in front of them.

An uncomfortable reality that needs to be addressed in regards to professional athletes as role models is this: society builds athletes up on the foundation of how good they are at their craft rather than the content of their character.

Therefore, if we actually want the people on television to be serviceable roll models for the youth of a nation, it is up to the fans and media alike to make good character of public figures the foundation of public support.

And that is impossible to do in the world of sports because winning cures everything.

While it’s easy to take Tom Brady and his exploits in comparison to Paulie D and his exploits (and believe me that’s a good choice) we have to look at why Brady is viewed as highly as he is.

Because Tom Brady is arguably the best quarterback of all time is the reason why so many impressionable people place him on a moral pedestal that apparently comes with success. The fact that Brady is a big contributor to the national charity Best Buddies is not nearly as prominent as the fact the Patriots quarterback is fifth all time in touchdown passes.

You can be a complete a-hole and still be forgiven by the sports viewing society so long as you win. Michael Vick can mutilate and murder dogs like he did back in 2007 and will be largely tolerated so long as he has a season like he did in 2010.

Ray Lewis can get charged with obstruction of justice during a murder trial, like he did in 2000 and have public perception remain that he killed two people; so long as he wins two Superbowls, is one of the best linebackers of all time, and a reverend in the locker room.

Ben Roethlisberger can allegedly rape a woman like he did back in 2008 (the charges against Roethlisberger were dropped), yet so long as he continues to put up good numbers and keep the Steelers Superbowl contenders he will be forgiven.

Still, Lewis and Roethlisberger are two time Superbowl champions who have reached the apex of success in their sport. No matter what we say about their character, they will be remembered first and foremost as being successful at their craft.

Obviously not all athletes are these heinous villains Vick, Roethlisberger, and Lewis have made them out to be. However, if we as a society really care about the people our kids look up to we will work on directing their attention to individuals of higher moral character; and more importantly making good character the definition of a good role model rather than how successful they are.

The alternative is defaulting to building up athletes and musical artists as saints and tearing them down as they do something stupid because they believe their fans will forgive them if they are successful in their craft.

Yet the saddest thing is in today’s society the athletes are correct to believe their sins will be forgiven if they catch ten touchdowns or make a great album.

There is nothing wrong with wanting people in higher positions to carry themselves better, like Stephen A does with Colin Kaepernick; especially in the image paranoid country we live in today.

However, that does not exonerate society from choosing whom to elevate if in fact the end goal is to have good role models for kids.

This notion leaves us with only two choices. One option is that both media members and fans have to decide that sportsmanship and good character take precedence over winning. The other option is to acknowledge that athletes are not good role models because winning is the most important value in sports; society can’t have the best of both worlds if they actually want better role models for their kids.

The second option is far more appealing if the goal is to be the change we see in others.

Tanking: Boston's Best Move

The thought of a team tanking is understandably egregious for diehard fans. Yet in the case of the Boston Celtics the complete devastation of their roster today with the end goal of building for a better team tomorrow.

In the sports world there is nothing worse than being mediocre and The Celtics find themselves in this precarious position. By trading Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Jason Terry for Kim Kardashian’s husband and his entourage, Danny Ainge has maneuvered his franchise deeper into mediocrity.

An opportunity to tank next season is staring Danny Ainge right in the eyes. All he has to do is get rid of one of the ten best point guards in the NBA and hope the ping pong balls bounce his way next summer.

The pro-tanking argument goes something like this. As presently constructed, the Celtics lack the star power to contend with the Miami Heat, the defensive prowess to slug it out with the Indiana Pacers, and the team unity to best the Chicago Bulls; so just blow it up, trade Rondo and rebuild a foundation on the ashes of your franchise.

Still while the Celtics will be bad next year, the franchises’ most infamous tanking endeavor still has Celtics fans feeling jilted.

Every basketball fan in the 1997 season knew going into the draft that Tim Duncan was the lock to be the number one overall pick; the Celtics ended up with the second worst record in the NBA that year in hopes of getting Duncan.

As we all know the Celtics didn’t get Duncan, or keep their first draft pick Chauncey Billups. Boston finished with a 36-46 record, finished 12^th in the Eastern Conference, and saw the 1997 season get filed under the ‘post Bird struggles’ paragraph on Wikipedia’s description of the C’s in 1993-1998.

Yet the Celtics tanking attempt faired much better in the new millennium, under Ainge.

The 2007 tank attempt gave Ainge his stripes as a general manager because he helped turn that ugly duckling into a gorgeous swan. The attempt to bomb the 2007 season and land either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant failed. However, the flipping of Jeff Green for Ray Allen helped lead Boston to a title the next year.

Yet the decision on whether or not to go into full blown tank mode depends on moving Rajon Rondo.

The last member of the Umbuntu Celtics is still in town and Rondo is the most alluring trade bait Boston will have for the foreseeable future.

Ainge may not pass on the chance to get rid of Rondo’s 24 million dollar contract in order to maneuver the team into a position to rebuild through the draft seems appealing, the Celtics would have to take the chance of trading their best player essentially for ping pong balls.

Keep in mind that Rondo is coming off of Achilles surgery, so if the Celtics are truly playing for the ping pong balls flipping Rondo for 40 cents on the dollar will enable the creative destruction to take full effect as soon as possible.

If the Celtics are in fact shooting for Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, or Marcus Smart trading Rondo would put them in the best position to get the highest draft pick. And trading Rondo will give the Celtics the first tool to begin the rebuilding process.

This Doc is Out

As trade talks with the Clippers collapse under the weight of Donald Sterling’s ignorance, Doc Rivers’ desire to leave has Celtic fans feeling sick to their stomachs.

The Los Angeles Clippers were not willing to part with DeAndre Jordan and two first round draft picks for Kevin Garnett and one of the NBA’s best coaches. While Rivers does have fond memories of  L.A. during  his playing career, he made his intentions clear he no longer wants to call Boston his home during the season.

As one would guess neither the Standells nor the fans approve of Doc’s change of heart.

Callers have flooded sports talk radio with a torrent of bad things to say about Doc and his waning loyalty. Couple Rivers wanting to leave with the team-city unity the Boston Bruins have going on and Doc’s desire to leave becomes harder to swallow.

Even though the cry for a disloyal coach to vacate the franchise can be heard from Summer Street the Celtics can’t afford to lose Doc simply because he has accomplished so much.

Rivers has the sixth highest winning percentage in Celtics history. Only Red Aurbach has more playoff wins than Doc. And most notably Rivers brought Boston a championship in 2008.

The good times felt so long ago didn’t they?

Although coach Rivers is a master of diagnosing defenses even this doc does not have a cure for aging stars. Paul Pierce is 35 years old and needs a stepstool to get off a jump shot. Garnett is 37 and battled ankle issues as recently as this season. Couple two burning out stars with a young point guard who plays for the highlight reels rather than the wins and it makes sense why Doc deems this team incurable.

Yet for Celtics fans that doesn’t make it hurt any less.

While it is clear that the window on this Celtics group has closed fans thought they had Rivers in place as the architect that constructed a new contender. Rivers’ five year 35 million dollar extension back in 2011 had Celtics faithful dreaming of Doc dialing up plays for Rajon Rondo and company for years to come.

Somewhere in the sweltering heat of summer that loyalty evaporated like ice cream on the beach.  

By flirting with the Clippers Doc has created a riff with the Celtics faithful that cannot be cured by going to Rite-Aid and filling out a prescription. Yes the Clippers are in a better position to make a run for a championship today. Yes questions about the C’s ability to build around Rondo are legitimate. And yes, even with Doc being in charge a rebuilding Celtics team would likely suffer a losing season or two.

It just hurt the Celtics faithful being forced to picture Doc departing for greener pastures.

Great(ness), now what?

Last night in south beach with all of the critics watching, the Miami Heat demolished the San Antonio Spurs with a 19 point beating on the NBA’s biggest stage.

This was a beat down of epic proportions. The 103-84 win by the current defending champions suggest that when they are in fact on, there is not a team in the current NBA that is better.

But last night the Miami Heat also proved that when there is one team of men that makes the rest of the league look like little boys (when they wish) is terrible for the league as a whole.

Last night’s game from the middle of the third quarter on was unwatchable, but not because both teams played poorly; rather it is because the Heat were in fact too dominant for the Spurs.

The 33-5 run that spanned from the waning moments of the third quarter into the middle of the fourth quarter was spectacular for Heat fans. Miami made 12 of their 13 shots, did not miss a three pointer, and committed one turnover in that eight minute span.

One run and the game was over, the benches were emptied by both teams with roughly five minutes to go in the NBA Finals. Both teams knew the game was over in what was supposed to be the tensest moments of the game. It was possible to hear David Stern yelling at the television ‘YOU CAN”T WIN BY THIS MUCH!!!! PEOPLE AREN’T GOING TO WATCH THIS!!!’ from Massachusetts.

Yet after seeing the ratings from last night’s game certainly calmed Stern down. The blowout win last night drew a 10.2 overnight rating, which was tied for the fourth highest game two rating since 2004.

This number is baffling for multiple reasons. Ignoring the local market viewings for a moment, it is stunning that THIS many people across the country want to watch the Heat win in lopsided fashion.

Greatness is fantastic in hindsight. It keeps statisticians and sports fans up for hours debating who was better and who was best. Yet in real time, one team ruling the NBA like Joseph Stalin once ruled over the former Soviet Union can’t possibly be entertaining.

Even when Michael Jordan was at the apex of his first prime in the 1993 NBA Finals, his Bulls never won a game by more than ten points. It was still a series, even though many thought that the Bulls were the better team and was eventually going to win; Phoenix still had a fighting chance.

And while the Heat are this good, people still watch, even when they destroy their competition like they did last night.

The de-facto ‘f- you Miami for throwing a dynasty parade before playing a single game’ hate, while still a great reason to hate the Heat, is looking more and more futile by the day.

It is common knowledge that the Heat have the best player in the world, the backing of the NBA officiating crews across the league, a good coach, and an all time great defense; yet there is any kind of hope they will lose.

When Miami plays as well as they did last night on the defensive end there is no team in the NBA that can beat them. The mindset shifts to ‘oh well the Heat are on tonight, guess this game is over.’

The compelling aspect of sports is that you don’t truly know who is going to win. When the Heat are this sharp during a game victory for them is a certainty. Combine the loss of the unpredictability element with the level of dominance and the game becomes unwatchable.

Nobody is punishing the Heat for being this great; they are punishing the rest of the league by being this dominant.