We begin in the AFC East with the only team that was on the fringe in that division, the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins finished with a 7-9 record last season and are looking to catch either the Jets or the Patriots in 2010. So will the Dolphins win more or less than 7 games this season?
The Verdict: Less
The Dolphins as a whole have some pieces like receiver Brandon Marshall, yet there are too many parts of this team that are sub par. The easiest place to look for mediocrity is at quarterback. Former Michigan man Chad Henne has not been Tom Brady, or even Mark Sanchez. In 2010, Henne threw for 3,301 yards, which is good, but his 19 interceptions compared to 15 touchdown passes caused fans to boo him at the Dolphins first practice. The Dolphins also ranked 21st in the league in rushing yards per game a year ago, and that was with a healthy Ronnie Brown. Brown has since departed to the Eagles and a slew of unproven running backs in south beach will not help the Dolphins run the wildcat. In contrast, Miami's defense is good. They ranked sixth in the league in yards allowed per game, and Yeramiah Bell had 101 tackles last season. That being said, the Jets defense is better than Miami's and the fins lack the offense to keep up with the Patriots. To sum it all up, Dolphins fans should start hoping the NBA lockout ends as quickly as possible.
Next up we have the Cleveland Browns in the AFC North division. The Browns finished with an 5-11 record last season, but could the young Browns team be on the rise? Will Cleveland win more than 5 in 2011?
The Verdict: Less
Don't get me wrong, the Cleveland Browns have some talent, and they do play the NFC West, so that will be two or three wins right there. However, the Cleveland Browns will take a small step backwards in 2011. Last season, running back Peyton Hillis ran for 1,177 yards and became the cover boy of Madden 12. But do not expect Hillis to have similar success in 2011 because he will have the most attention of every defensive coordinator game planning for Cleveland. Yes Colt McCoy has potential and will likely improve on his numbers from a year ago, but Cleveland has no receivers that will scare anybody. The Browns ranked 30th in the NFL in receiving yards as a team last year and their best target is a mediocre tight end in Ben Watson. Defensively, the Browns were not much better. The Browns ranked 22nd in the league in total yards per game allowed in 2010, despite a strong year from corner back Joe Haden. The Browns are young and a few pieces away from becoming an interesting team, but don't expect much from Cleveland in 2011.
Let us turn to the AFC South with the Houston Texans who disappointed a lot of people with a 6-10 record last season. Will the Texans win more or less than 6 games this year?
The Verdict: More
The Texans have never won ten games in the history of their franchise and have only one winning season, but 2011 is their year. Arian Foster was the NFL's leading rusher in 2010 with 1,616 yards. It is unlikely that Foster would do that well again, but he had a good enough year to make opposing coaches game plan for him, which will free up the passing game. Speaking of Houston's passing game, the Texans ranked fourth in the entire NFL with 259 passing yards per game. Matt Schaub had another big season a year ago, throwing for 4,370 yards with 24 touchdowns against only 12 interceptions, and he is just now turning 30. Also, the Texans might have the best receiver in the NFL in Andre Johnson, who had another good year with 86 catches, 1,216 yards and eight touchdowns. The key to the Texans season is whether the pass defense can improve from dead last in the league in 2010 to a respectable ranking this year. There is little question Houston can score with anybody, but stopping teams will determine how far the Texans go.
Staying in the AFC South, we look at the Jacksonville Jaguars who finished 8-8 in 2010. Will the Jags get more or less than eight wins this year?
The Verdict: Less
The Jaguars are a very middle of the pack team that will not scare Indianapolis or Houston in 2011. There is no question about Jaguars running back Maurice Jones Drew, but the rest of the offense is full of questions. This is because Jacksonville did rank third in the league in rushing yards per game, but the Jaguars also ranked 15th in the league in yards per game in 2010. The only logical explanation behind the Jaguars average offense is inconsistent play from the quarterback position. Ah, that is where David Garrard comes in. On paper, Garrard had a good year in 2010, throwing for 2,734 yards with 23 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. But a closer look at Garrard's game by games statistics reveal that Garrard has weeks where he is very good, and others in which he looks like a backup. Defensively, the Jaguars were very bad. They ranked 22nd in the league in rushing yards allowed per game, and 28th in the league in total yards allowed per game. A one trick offense and a bad defense is a recipe for a disappointing season.
Now, let us move to the AFC West with the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers finished 2010 with a 9-7 record and a lot of extra time to go golfing. So will the Chargers have more or less than 9 wins this season?
The Verdict: More
Believe it or not, the San Diego Chargers ranked first in total yards per game on offense and total yards allowed per game on defense. But due to their horrendous special teams play and a lackluster running game, the Chargers missed the playoffs. There is little question that San Diego has the talent to win the AFC West. Phillip Rivers had another big year in 2010, throwing for 4,710 yards with 30 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Tight end Antonio Gates had another nice year for the Chargers as well, with 50 catches, 782 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Defensively, the Chargers are bringing back all of their starters and safety Eric Weddle is looking to improve on his big time season in 2010. The biggest question mark with San Diego is their running game. The Chargers ranked 15th in the league in rushing and 1st round pick Ryan Mathews had a very pedestrian year. That being said, with the young Kansas City Chiefs playing a division winner's schedule against mostly playoff teams, the door is wide open for the Chargers to take back the division.
Staying in the AFC West, we head to the black hole in Oakland, that finished 8-8 a year ago. Will the Raiders have more or less than eight wins in 2011?
The Verdict: Less
The Oakland Raiders were a surprising 8-8 in 2010, with ranks on offense and defense that surprised a lot of people. The black hole ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards per game last season and they also ranked second in the league in passing yards allowed per game. Oakland does have Darren McFadden and his 1,157 rushing yards still on the roster and when wide receiver Jacoby Ford gets into open space, few defensive backs will catch him. Despite these parts, the biggest reason that Oakland will falter is because they lost their two best players in cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha and tight end Zach Miller to free agency. In addition to their big free agent losses, the Raiders did not upgrade at the quarterback position when they had the chance. Jason Campbell is not the worst quarterback in the NFL, but 2,387 passing yards 13 touchdown passes and eight picks is simply not going to get Oakland into the playoffs.
Now we head over to the NFC East where the Dallas Cowboys went 6-10 last season. Will the Cowboys have more or less than 6 wins in 2011?
The Verdict: More
With the Philadelphia Eagles making a lot of noise in free agency, the pressure to win the division is not squarely on the shoulders of big D. And new head coach Jason Garret could not have dreamed of a better way to start his first full season in Dallas. Yes the Cowboys started 1-7 in 2010, mostly because Wade Phillips had lost control of his locker room and Tony Romo was hurt for most of last season. When Garret took over, the Cowboys seemed more disciplined, and Dallas went 5-3 in the second half of the year. With Romo back, the Cowboys should again be scary again this season. Still, the Cowboys would not the the Cowboys without some question marks. The first is can the Cowboys defense improve? Big D ranked 23rd in the NFL in yards per game allowed last year, but they do have new defensive coordinator in Rob Ryan. And Ryans know how to coach defense. Also, is Felix Jones the answer at running back, or will he break down again? The answer to those questions will determine how well Dallas does in 2011.
Staying in the NFC East, the New York Giants went 10-6 a year ago, but missed the playoffs after a loss to Green Bay. Will the Giants finish with more or less than 10 wins in 2011?
The Verdict: Less
Eli Manning said in an interview in the offseason that he was in the same class as Tom Brady. Well it is certainly nice that he believes that, but the facts point to a different conclusion. Eli did throw for 4,002 yards last season and did have 31 touchdowns, but Eli also had an NFL leading 25 interceptions. In addition to Manning's struggles last season, his primary targets Steve Smith and Kevin Boss have left the big apple. But despite all of Eli's difficulties, the Giants primary problem was on the defensive side of the ball. The Giants ranked 23rd in the league against the pass in 2010 due to a large amount of injuries to their secondary. But so far the Giants have not had much more luck this season because big blue already has cornerbacks Prince Amukamara, Brian Witherspoon, Bruce Johnson, and Terrell Thomas hurt for extended periods of time this season. The Giants missed the playoffs at the last minute a year ago, but this season could be much worse.
Moving to the NFC north and perhaps the most intriguing team in the NFC, the 6-10 Detroit Lions. Will the Lions get more or less than 6 wins this season?
The Verdict: More
The Detroit Lions successfully made the jump from a four win team to a six win team in 2010. But in order for the Detroit Lions to take the next step, a few things have to play out in their favor. First of all, quarterback Mathew Stafford has to stay healthy for 16 games. Stafford spent most of the season on the disabled list due to a broken collarbone in his throwing shoulder, and the Lions passing attack suffered as a result. A healthy Stafford should help the Lions improve upon their twelfth ranked passing attack from a year ago. The other thing Detroit has to do to make it to the next level is improve on defense. The Lions ranked 21st in the league in total yards allowed, and 24th against the run. What could help Detroit improve on D is their extremely talented defensive line lead by Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Still, Detroit's back seven is mediocre, and they need to step up if Detroit wants to approach .500. The Lions certainly have talent, and perhaps are just one or two pieces away from being able to make major noise.
Now on to the toughest division in football, the NFC South with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished 10-6 in 2010. Will the Buccaneers win more or less than 10 games this season?
The Verdict: Less
The Buccaneers were the biggest surprise in the NFL a year ago, but do not expect a repeat performance in 2011. Tampa Bay's offense overshadowed a very average defense in the 2010 season. The Buccaneers ranked 17th in the NFL in total yards allowed last season, and 28th in the NFL against the run a year ago. Tampa Bay lost it's best linebacker Barrett Ruud to free agency and are most likely to loose their best cornerback Aquib Talib to suspension for all of his off the field issues. Despite the problems on the defensive side of the ball, Tampa Bay's offense could still prove this prediction wrong. Josh Freeman is a budding star who had a great year in 2010 with 3,451 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Also running back LeGarrette Blount was jolly as a roger to leave Tennessee, and he rewarded Tampa Bay with a 1,000 yard season. Still, Tampa Bay does not have the marshmallow schedule they did a year ago, and with Rudd gone and Talib in trouble, the Buccaneers should end up with less than ten wins.
Now we move out to the NFC West to see if anybody can win the division with a .500 record, starting with the 7-9 Saint Louis Rams. Will the Rams win more or less than 7 this season?
The Verdict: More
The Saint Louis Rams battled the Seattle Seahawks in week 16 of the NFL season for the NFC west division crown, and lost. But with key free agents leaving the pacific northwest, the division is the Rams' to loose. Offensively Saint Louis is an above average team. The Rams ranked a surprising ninth in the NFL in passing during the 2010 season, despite the lack of talent at receiver. Quarterback Sam Bradford had a good rookie season with 3,512 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Running back Stephen Jackson racked up 1,241 rushing yards and added six touchdown runs on his way to another big time season. The one aspect that could trip up the Rams is their defense. The Rams were okay on the defensive side of the ball, for they ranked 17th in the league in total yards against. Saint Louis' defense is lead by linebacker James Laurinaitis, who racked up 114 tackles and three sacks in 2010. The Rams should be the NFC west favorites, and an improving offense combined with an average defense should equal improvement in 2011.
So that is going to do it for the NFL's 2011 edition of more or less. For all of those playing along at home, you may not win a car, but the bragging rights will be far more worth it.
Moving to the NFC north and perhaps the most intriguing team in the NFC, the 6-10 Detroit Lions. Will the Lions get more or less than 6 wins this season?
The Verdict: More
The Detroit Lions successfully made the jump from a four win team to a six win team in 2010. But in order for the Detroit Lions to take the next step, a few things have to play out in their favor. First of all, quarterback Mathew Stafford has to stay healthy for 16 games. Stafford spent most of the season on the disabled list due to a broken collarbone in his throwing shoulder, and the Lions passing attack suffered as a result. A healthy Stafford should help the Lions improve upon their twelfth ranked passing attack from a year ago. The other thing Detroit has to do to make it to the next level is improve on defense. The Lions ranked 21st in the league in total yards allowed, and 24th against the run. What could help Detroit improve on D is their extremely talented defensive line lead by Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Still, Detroit's back seven is mediocre, and they need to step up if Detroit wants to approach .500. The Lions certainly have talent, and perhaps are just one or two pieces away from being able to make major noise.
Now on to the toughest division in football, the NFC South with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished 10-6 in 2010. Will the Buccaneers win more or less than 10 games this season?
The Verdict: Less
The Buccaneers were the biggest surprise in the NFL a year ago, but do not expect a repeat performance in 2011. Tampa Bay's offense overshadowed a very average defense in the 2010 season. The Buccaneers ranked 17th in the NFL in total yards allowed last season, and 28th in the NFL against the run a year ago. Tampa Bay lost it's best linebacker Barrett Ruud to free agency and are most likely to loose their best cornerback Aquib Talib to suspension for all of his off the field issues. Despite the problems on the defensive side of the ball, Tampa Bay's offense could still prove this prediction wrong. Josh Freeman is a budding star who had a great year in 2010 with 3,451 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Also running back LeGarrette Blount was jolly as a roger to leave Tennessee, and he rewarded Tampa Bay with a 1,000 yard season. Still, Tampa Bay does not have the marshmallow schedule they did a year ago, and with Rudd gone and Talib in trouble, the Buccaneers should end up with less than ten wins.
Now we move out to the NFC West to see if anybody can win the division with a .500 record, starting with the 7-9 Saint Louis Rams. Will the Rams win more or less than 7 this season?
The Verdict: More
The Saint Louis Rams battled the Seattle Seahawks in week 16 of the NFL season for the NFC west division crown, and lost. But with key free agents leaving the pacific northwest, the division is the Rams' to loose. Offensively Saint Louis is an above average team. The Rams ranked a surprising ninth in the NFL in passing during the 2010 season, despite the lack of talent at receiver. Quarterback Sam Bradford had a good rookie season with 3,512 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Running back Stephen Jackson racked up 1,241 rushing yards and added six touchdown runs on his way to another big time season. The one aspect that could trip up the Rams is their defense. The Rams were okay on the defensive side of the ball, for they ranked 17th in the league in total yards against. Saint Louis' defense is lead by linebacker James Laurinaitis, who racked up 114 tackles and three sacks in 2010. The Rams should be the NFC west favorites, and an improving offense combined with an average defense should equal improvement in 2011.
So that is going to do it for the NFL's 2011 edition of more or less. For all of those playing along at home, you may not win a car, but the bragging rights will be far more worth it.
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