But this season has been anything other than regular.
The college football landscape has been dominated by bad news. One of the most iconic programs in the game was ripped apart by scandal that took place just a few minutes away from campus. More than twelve schools will be playing in conferences that geographically do not make sense just so they can get a bigger piece of the revenue pie at the NCAA's dinner. And there is controversy surrounding the two teams who made it to the BCS Championship game.
Okay that last one is nothing new, but you get the idea.
This college football season has been surrounded by negative headlines that have detracted from the individual seasons of the five men invited to the trophy presentation this upcoming Saturday. These finalists include, the foregone number one draft pick in next year's draft, the most electrifying player on the best team, the face of the other team in the national championship, the man who was one touchdown away from breaking a legend's record, and the man who elevated his program to the next level. So who is going to have to come up with a teary eyed thank you speech after receiving the 77th annual Heisman Trophy? Well, all five of these players have a case.
Let us start with the predetermined number one draft pick in next year's draft: Andrew Luck.
Andrew Luck could have come out of college last year and made millions of dollars in the NFL last year, but instead he decided to return to college to bring a Heisman trophy and a national championship to the Stanford Cardinal football family. Luck has put up numbers for the fourth ranked Cardinal, including a 70 percent completion percentage, 3,170 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns against nine interceptions, and the fifth highest QB rating in the country at 167.5.
That is Luck's case and it is simply not good enough. In fact based on some key numbers, Luck should not even be at the award presentation.
His quarterback rating of 167.5, is the fifth highest in the national country, behind Boise State's Kellen Moore's 177.2, Baylor's Robert Griffin III's 188.6, Houston's Case Keenum's 193.3, or Wisconsin's Russell Wilson and his NCAA leading 201.6 quarterback rating.
Luck's 70.8 percent completion percentage is eighth in the country behind RGIII, Keenum, Moore, Wilson, and three others.
He ranks 12th in the country with 8.6 yards per completion, and would rank 13th if Kellen Moore's last name came before the letter L.
And Luck has the 10th best touchdown to interception ratio in college.
It appears written in the Stars that Andrew Luck will be heading to the Indianapolis Colts as the number one overall draft pick in April's draft.
It appears written in the stars that Luck will be holding the jersey of the Indianapolis Colts when they draft him number one overall next April, but Luck will not be holding the 77th Heisman trophy as well.
What about the best player on the best team? LSU's Tyrann Mathieu
This is an easy one. Only once in the illustrious history in college football has a defensive back won the Heisman Trophy, and that was Charles Woodson in 1997. Here is how Mathieu stacks up against Wilson's past numbers
Woodson Defensive: 44 tackles, 17 assists, 1 sack, 8 interceptions
Mathieu Defensive: 54 tackles, 17 assists, 1.5 sacks, 2 interceptions
Woodson return: 36 punt returns, 301 yards, 8.4 yards per return, long of 78 yards, 1 touchdown
Mathieu return: 33 returns, 420 yards, long of 92 yards, 2 touchdowns.
Defensively and returner wise, Mathieu has a clear edge, but what Wilson had that Mathieu does not is 3 offensive touchdowns as well. Woodson was all over the field and his value was integral to Michigan in 1997, Mathieu has been electric, but LSU has a dominant team defense that is not lead by this sophomore. What also works against Mathieu is that Tim Tebow, a quarterback, is the only sophomore to win the Heisman trophy.
In short: good stats Matheiu, but no cigar.
What about Alabama Running back Trent Richardson? Could he bring home the Tide's second Heisman Trophy?
Don't count on it.
Let us compare Richardson's numbers against Oregon running back LaMichael James.
James: 222 carries, 1,646 rushing yards 7.4 yards per carry, Long of 90 yards, 17 touchdowns.
Richardson: 263 carries, 1,583 rushing yards, 6 yards per carry, long of 76 yards, 20 touchdowns.
Factor in the fact that James got hurt in his last game and he separates himself from Richardson even further. The only reason that Richardson is going to the presentation is because James got hurt.
Sorry Richardson, good luck in the National Championship game.
What about the Wisconsin running back Montee Ball?
Now here we have a prospect.
Monte Ball has had a fantastic season that appears to have come out of nowhere. This season Ball has had 275 carries for 1,759 yards, a 6.4 yard per carry average, and 32 rushing touchdowns.
But Monte has done more than just run the ball extremely well. As a receiver, Ball has 20 catches for 255 yards and six touchdowns.
All of those statistics are better than Richardson's and Ball even has bested James in carries, yards, and touchdowns. In addition to ground superiority, Monte Ball has more receiving touchdowns alone than James and Richardson do combined.
All this comes without mentioning the fact that Monte Ball's 38 total touchdowns are the second most in NCAA history by a running back. His total is just one shy of the legendary Barry Sander's 39.
Any time you are a running back that can be mentioned in the same sentence as Barry Sanders, you are someone who should be taken seriously.
And now the final Candidate: Baylor's Robert Griffin the Third.
Ladies and Gentlemen we have our 2011 Heisman Trophy Winner.
The Heisman should boil down to a two horse race between Ball and RGIII and we have heard Ball's compelling case already. Now it's RGIII's turn.
Griffin III has 267 completions for 3,998 yards, 36 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. His 188.6 quarterback rating is the third highest in the country. Griffin III is the proud owner of the third best completion percentage in the nation with 74.2% completed passes. To continue the trending pattern, his 10.2 yards per attempt is the third best in the nation. The only key stat in which Griffin III ranks lower than third is touchdown to interception ratio: which ranks fourth in the nation. And in the fourth week of the season, RGIII had more touchdown passes, 14, than incompletions, 12.
The primary reason that Griffin will win is due to the developing historical trend of Heisman winners during the 2000s. Out of the previous eleven Heisman trophy winners, nine were quarterbacks. And polls across the nation seem to be predicting Griffin to win with Ball finishing fifth in the voting.
If history means anything, it will go to Griffin. If the award truly goes to the player who had the best season, Monte Ball will win. But due to the huge popularity of quarterbacks in football and the recent historical trend during this generation, bet on Griffin III taking home the 77th Heisman Trophy.
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